The US economy experienced a notable slowdown in the first quarter of 2025. The latest GDP data showed the economy contracted at an annual rate of -0.3%. Businesses stockpiling goods (which increased import volumes) ahead of the implementation of President Trump’s shemozzle of a tariff policy was one of the reasons for the contraction in GDP. The other was a decline in Government spending. Mr Trump’s tariffs are deflationary for the world and inflationary for the US. The sharp weakening in soft economic data points to rising recession risks, although markets still only seem priced for a mild slowdown which now seems right given the backdown.
It is no surprise that China announced a new stimulus package including interest rate cuts and a significant liquidity injection, as the Government looks to boost an economy that has been hit by the collapse in the property market and now the trade war with the US. China’s factory activity contracted at its fastest pace in 16 months in April following the frontloading of orders to beat the tariffs. Trade talks between the US and China have driven market optimism over the past few weeks and sentiment has turned positive. The US-China deal has 30% import taxes on Chinese goods, which could still stem trade flow. The trade announcement with the UK has disappointed many in the market as it kept the 10% tariff on imports into the US up from 3.4%. The EU hasn’t even begun negotiations with the US.
In Australia, the election has come and gone fairly uneventfully for financial markets. We are waiting on GDP data to be released in the next few weeks which should confirm a sluggish economy given consumer spending remains weak. The RBA has cut interest rates and this should underpin mild growth.
The outlook for financial markets remains one of uncertainty reflected by the increase in volatility. Tight policy, lingering inflation risks and tariff-related drag still weighs on markets. What seems to have been achieved so far is a whole lot of volatility and the realisation the US needs China as much as China needs the US. Within the Australian share market there was a notable softening in outlook statements by company management in the recent reporting season. With full-year forecasts being revised lower, it is reasonable to suggest that market-wide earnings growth is slowing, with expectations moderating for the rest of this year and potentially into the next.
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